The Sri Lanka Presidential Election is heating up, with Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake at the forefront. Could a second preference vote decide the winner?
Introduction: The Tight Race in Sri Lanka’s Presidential Election
As Sri Lanka approaches its much-anticipated presidential election, international media outlets are reporting an intense competition between two key contenders: Sajith Premadasa from the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and Anura Kumara Dissanayake from the National People’s Power (NPP). Current President Ranil Wickremesinghe is said to be trailing in third place. The election, scheduled for September 21, is a crucial event that could redefine the country’s political landscape.
According to several reports, it is likely that either Sajith Premadasa or Anura Kumara Dissanayake will emerge as the ninth executive president of Sri Lanka. The Diplomat magazine and India’s Deccan Herald have highlighted opinion polls suggesting both candidates are neck-and-neck, each with around 35% of the vote, while Wickremesinghe is expected to secure around 24–25%. If neither candidate receives 50% of the vote, Sri Lanka could witness its first-ever second preference vote.
India’s Strategic Stake in the Sri Lanka Presidential Election
India’s interest in Sri Lankan elections has long been apparent, and the upcoming election is no exception. Sri Lanka’s geographic location, particularly its proximity to southern India and shared cultural ties, plays a vital role in shaping India’s geopolitical strategy.
In the upcoming election, India is reportedly backing Sajith Premadasa, largely due to his pro-India stance and his promise to fully implement the 13th Amendment to the Sri Lankan constitution. This amendment, which addresses power devolution to Tamil provinces, aligns with India’s long-term interest in maintaining peace in the region and addressing the concerns of its large Tamil population. India’s involvement in Sri Lankan elections also stems from the growing influence of China on the island nation, a development New Delhi views with increasing concern.
China’s Influence and Dissanayake’s Position
Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s political stance and his NPP’s foundation in the center-left political tradition, specifically the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), trace back to a pro-China faction within Sri Lanka’s Communist Party. Dissanayake’s opposition to national asset sales and his disapproval of the Adani Group’s energy deal with Sri Lanka highlight his resistance to India’s involvement in the country’s economy. The NPP has been vocal in opposing the growing influence of foreign companies, including Indian and Chinese entities, which they believe threatens Sri Lanka’s sovereignty and economy.
Though Dissanayake’s party is not explicitly anti-India, his policies reflect a resistance to foreign influence, which resonates with voters concerned about national economic independence. His opposition to the Adani Group’s wind farm deal in Mannar, where Sri Lanka has agreed to purchase energy at twice the market rate, has also been a critical talking point in the campaign.
Election Dynamics: Possibility of a Second Preference Vote
Sri Lanka’s electoral system requires a candidate to secure more than 50% of the vote to win outright. With the possibility of no candidate reaching this threshold, the election may move to a second preference vote, marking the first such instance in the country’s history. In this process, all candidates except the top two are eliminated, and the second preferences of the eliminated candidates are redistributed.
This system adds a layer of complexity to the election, making it more unpredictable. If the race indeed goes to a second preference vote, the alliances and strategic positioning of candidates will play a decisive role in determining the eventual winner.
Premadasa’s Pro-India Stance and Support Base
Sajith Premadasa’s campaign has garnered significant support from various Tamil political parties, including the Illankai Thamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK), which has close ties with India. This alliance further strengthens Premadasa’s pro-India position, which stands in contrast to his rival Dissanayake’s more critical view of India’s involvement in Sri Lanka’s affairs.
Premadasa’s promise to fully implement the 13th Amendment is a key factor in securing Indian backing. The amendment, which has been a point of contention in Sri Lankan politics, calls for greater devolution of powers to provincial councils, addressing the long-standing concerns of the Tamil minority.
Foreign Policy Implications for Sri Lanka
The outcome of this election will have far-reaching consequences for Sri Lanka’s foreign relations, particularly with India and China. A victory for Premadasa would likely see Sri Lanka strengthening ties with India, especially in areas like security cooperation and economic investment. On the other hand, a Dissanayake victory could result in a more balanced, independent foreign policy with a focus on reducing foreign influence in domestic affairs.
Given the strategic importance of Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean, the international community, particularly India and China, are closely watching the developments in this election. The results could influence not just bilateral relations but also the broader geopolitical landscape of South Asia.
The Role of the Rajapaksa Family in the Sri Lanka Presidential Election
Despite the Rajapaksa family’s influence in Sri Lankan politics, the 2024 presidential election sees a shift in their role. Namal Rajapaksa, the son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, is contesting as the candidate for the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). However, both Premadasa and Dissanayake have emerged as the stronger contenders.
The Rajapaksa family’s legacy in Sri Lankan politics is significant, but public dissatisfaction with their governance during recent economic crises has weakened their influence. Whether Namal Rajapaksa can rally enough support to be a serious contender remains doubtful.
The Role of Public Opinion and Election Day Factors
Opinion polls have shown a tight race between Premadasa and Dissanayake, with both candidates commanding substantial support. Public opinion has largely been shaped by economic concerns, particularly the financial crisis that gripped the country in recent years. Additionally, national security and foreign policy have been key issues driving voter sentiment.
The day of the election will be influenced by factors such as voter turnout, regional support bases, and last-minute shifts in public opinion. Both candidates will likely focus on mobilizing their core supporters while attempting to sway undecided voters in the final days.
The Regional Impact of the Election
The outcome of Sri Lanka’s presidential election will have a ripple effect across the South Asian region. For India, maintaining strong relations with Sri Lanka is crucial for both economic and security reasons. If Premadasa wins, India can expect a more favorable partnership, particularly in areas like trade and infrastructure development. Conversely, a Dissanayake victory may introduce more tension into the relationship, especially regarding India’s economic investments in Sri Lanka.
Conclusion: The Future of Sri Lanka Post-Election
As Sri Lanka prepares to elect its next president, the stakes are incredibly high. Whether it is Sajith Premadasa or Anura Kumara Dissanayake who assumes office, the future political and economic direction of the country will be significantly shaped by the outcome of this election. With foreign powers like India and China having vested interests, the election is not just a domestic affair—it’s a geopolitical contest that will influence the region for years to come.
FAQs
- Who are the frontrunners in the upcoming Sri Lanka Presidential Election?
Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake are leading the race, with current President Ranil Wickremesinghe trailing in third place. - What is the importance of the second preference vote in Sri Lankan elections?
If no candidate wins 50% of the vote, the election will move to a second preference vote, where the eliminated candidates’ second preferences are redistributed. - How is India involved in the Sri Lanka Presidential Election?
India is backing Sajith Premadasa due to his pro-India stance and concerns over growing Chinese influence in Sri Lanka. - Why is Sajith Premadasa considered a pro-India candidate?
Premadasa supports the full implementation of the 13th Amendment, which aligns with India’s interests in devolving power to Tamil provinces. - What is Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s stance on national asset sales?
Dissanayake opposes the sale of national assets to foreign companies, particularly criticizing deals like the Adani Group’s energy project in Sri Lanka.